NCAA Regional Profile: #1 National Seed Vanderbilt hosts in Nashville, TN

(NCAA photo/CBC image)

By College Baseball Central writers Micah Beutell, Bo Carter, Noah Darling, Caleb Donnelley, Mark Garland, Andrew Kube, Doug Kyle, Jake Mastroianni, Jake McKeever, Andrew Riedell, and Colton Watson

Host: Vanderbilt Commodores (Hawkins Field)

1. Vanderbilt (42-16, 19-11 Southeastern Conference)

2. Louisville (35-21, 15-15 Atlantic Coast Conference)

3. ETSU (41-15, 14-7 Southern Conference)

4. Wright State (38-19, 25-5 Horizon League)

#1 Vanderbilt

RPI* 1  SOS 2  Record vs Q1: 18-13 Q2: 11-2

The number one overall national seed who finished as the SEC Tournament champions & #1 overall RPI team is set to host a regional full of offensive lead teams. Wright State, East Tennessee State, and Louisville are all in the Top 40 in the country in runs scored and feature a lineup with multiple home run threats. It will be an interesting matchup considering Vanderbilt has the 9th best team ERA in the country at 3.76. When you look at Vanderbilt on the mound you see a team led by their one-two punch rotation of JD Thompson & Cody Bowker. The bullpen is where this Vanderbilt team has really shined with Luke Guth & Sawyer Hawks each posting sub 2.00 ERAs in 17+ appearances. The Commodores are 1st in the country in K% at 31.0.

Though it seems Vanderbilt’s pitching should have enough quality arms to limit these explosive teams in the Nashville Regional, they are going to need their bats to put up a few runs, as we can expect their opponents to score some. Riley Nelson will need to continue his successful offensive season if the Commodores look to roll through their regional. Nelson has a .534 slugging percentage & leads the team in runs scored. As a group the Commodores strike out a lot in which they are 270th in the country in K% so that is something to watch as Vanderbilt will need to limit that to have success this weekend. Overall Vandebilt has done a great job winning low scoring games, so it will be fun to watch them face explosive offenses all weekend. 

#2 Louisville

RPI* 32  SOS 25  Record vs Q1: 12-14 Q2: 4-4

There was a lot of debate on whether the Cardinals would land as a 2 seed or 3 seed in a regional. Ultimately the Cardinals landed on the 2 seed line being paired in a regional with a teeam they defeated earlier this year 5-4 in Vanderbilt. The Cardinals have seen a lot of injuries and rotation changes throughout the year as 10 different arms have made 2+ starts this season. Ethan Eberle & Patrick Forbes highlight this Louisvillle rotation and Forbes when on his game is one of the best arms in college baseball. Facing teams with high strikeout rates all weekend is big for the Forbes start (who I think you will see throw their 2nd game of the weekend) as he has record 85 strikeouts this season in his 54.1 innings of work.

Other important arms to watch for the Cards are Tucker Biven & Jake Schweitzer. Biven who is a junior has pitched a lot of high leverage innings in his career for this Louisville program and will be a key if Louisville is to advance to the Super Regional round. Schweitzer on the other hand has been the best arm out of the bullpen for the Cardinals this season. The true freshman from Trinity High School in Louisville will see his first collegiate postseason, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the moment. The biggest key for this Louisville pitching staff is to limit walks as they are 275th in the country in BB%. If they can limit the walks this Louisivlle offense should be able to score enough to keep them in games.

Offensively is where this Louisville team shines. Coach Dan McDonnell has a ton of depth on his bench that can come up in big spots offensively. The Cardinals are 38th in the country with 8.2 runs per game and Top 50 in the country in 4 other key offensive statistical categories. Eight different Louisville hitters are hitting over .300 in a minimum of 75 ABs. A few key hitters to watch are Jake Munroe, Eddie King Jr., Zion Rose, and Lucas Moore. The majority of this Louisville lineup is a threat to leave the yard as multiple guys have double digit home runs on the year. This offense can score with anyone and you can expect the opening game with ETSU to be an absolute slugfest.

#3 ETSU

RPI* 36  SOS 98  Record vs Q1: 1-2 Q2: 5-4

This ETSU is an Omaha darkhorse contender. A very balanced group of arms mixed with one of the most lethal offenses in the country make this a group you don’t want to mess with. On the mound the Buccaneers are dealing with some injuries, but still boast one of the best pitching staffs at the mid-major level. The Bucs are 18th in the country in limiting free bases and have a Top 25 team ERA. Carter Fink and Michael Harpster are both starters that can compete with the best lineups in the country. With the Bucs being a “fill the zone” staff it will be interesting to see how they do against that lethal lineup from Louisville in Game 1. Expect Brady Frederick to be a key for the Bucs coming out of the bullpen with other arms including Derek McCarley and Andrew Ronne being big pieces who may get a start or come in for long relief as needed during this regional.

Let me introduce you to the best offense not many in the country have heard of. The Bucs are Top 5 in the country in home runs (116), slugging percentage (.569), and wRC+ (128). Cooper Torres, Blake Jacklin, and Grant Gallaher are all threats to leave the yard everytime they come to the plate. The key to this lineup in my opinion is Cody Miller. One of the core leaders of this Buccaneer ballclub, he is second in the team in multiple key offensive categories for this Bucs team. There really isn’t a weak link to this ETSU lineup and I expect them to score in bunches this tournament. This team is a dark horse for Omaha if they continue their offensive dominance. 

#4 Wright State

RPI* 98  SOS 254  Record vs Q1: 2-10 Q2: 2-1

Wright State is a very sneaky four seed with a lethal offense. Entering this regional they are the lowest rated pitching staff of the four teams ranking outside the Top 125 of most key pitching statistical categories. The one thing this staff does well is striking opponents out at high rates. They have a K% of 21.2 and have a group of quality arms they can turn to out of the bullpen. In order for this Wright State team to make some noise in this regional they are going to need a good outing from Jarrett Heilman who has been really good since April only allowing 2 Earned Runs in his last 5 starts.

Where Wright State is dangerous is with this offensive firepower. The Raiders are 10th in the country in runs per game at 9.1 and are known for winning offensive shootouts. In a regional with explosive offenses, I can’t wait to see how they match the other teams in tight games. Hunter Warren and Boston Smith are two names you need to know going into this regional with both guys hitting .337 or better and spearhead this lethal group. If Wright State wants any chance of pulling an upset or two in this regional they will need this group to continue its success and probably need a key swing from a guy like JP Peltier who has been a key piece to the Wright State success this season. 

*****

*-Warren Nolan RPI